Motivation for Change
First a little background as to why we changed the forecast format. Over the past few months since the release of our initial forecast format in early April, we came to the realization that our initial format was unwieldy in terms of both useability and flexibilty. This conclusion was based not only on our opinions but also early feedback from our user community. As a result we embarked on a development effort aimed at improving the format with respect to ease-of-use and options for customization.
More Useability and Flexibility
Compared to the old format, the new format is much simpler and therefore both easier to understand and implement. For example before we listed raw probabilities for price movements relative to ceilings and floors. Now however we have condensed these probabilities and levels into a simple buy recommendation – updated daily and valid for twenty trading-days.
In addition the new format offers more opportunities for customization than before. Whereas the old format only offered forecast data for the CAC 40 and S&P 500 indices themselves, we now provide forecast data for all stocks in the CAC 40 and Dow Jones 30 indices (depending on interest among our user community, we plan to add stocks in the S&P 500 at a later date). Therefore one now has access to a much wider range of invidividual securities. In turn this allows the development of unique investment strategies focused on specific stocks or groups of stocks across markets.
Our new forecast format incorporates some key features, which we believe you will find useful for your investment activities.
As mentioned above we now provide daily buy recommendations for all individual stocks in the CAC 40 and Dow Jones 30 indices. The recommendations are based on forecasts of price-increases from our machine-learning algorithms and are valid for the next twenty trading-days.
For each index we now provide charts of portfolio performance for a simple investment strategy based on our buy recommendations. Namely each day we buy all the recommended stocks in our forecast. Then for each stock we buy, we sell it twenty trading-days later. The charts are interactive and continuously compare our relative performance since 1.January.2014 with the performance of a buy-and-hold strategy for the underlying index.
The same charts of portfolio performance also allow one to track the amount of what we call "capital invested" – that is the amount of capital invested in our portfolio of buy recommendations at any moment in time. As you will see with our portfolio, one is not rarely 100% invested in the market like traditional buy-and-wait strategies. This fact offers several advantages including reduced volatility and thus risk as well as freeing capital over extended timespans.
Each time we sell a open investment-line after twenty trading-days we incur a return – hopefully positive! We feel it is important to show you these returns. Therefore we provide pie-charts that show the relative frequency of returns for investment-lines based on our current investment strategy
We have addressed only the highlights of our new format in this blog-post. For additional information, again please see our new Help page. In addition we intend to publish several follow-up blog-posts that expand on specifc details of our new format.
Overall we hope that you find our new forecast format and portfolio summaries not only more useful but also more intuitive for your investement needs. In the meantime we thank you for your patience. And if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us – simply use the contact-form in the right-hand margin. We very much look forward to hearing from you.