Someone once said that predicting the future is a fool's errand. We agree. However one can still use stastitics to estimate the likelihood of future events based on past data and an underlying statistical model. In fact statistical methods have been used extensively for years in activities like consumer research, weather forecasting and of course finance. In our case we use powerful machine-learning methods to estimate the probability of short-term price movements of selected securities and indices, currencies and commodities.
Statistics Implies Uncertainty
Statistics implies a stochaistic world with random events. As a result uncertainty is ever present in any statistical data. For example a high probability of a price increase in the coming days is no guarantee that a price increase will indeed occur. Moreover there are always "black swan" events like natural catastrophes or economic turmoil that can never be predicted using statistical methods. Therefore please always keep this inherent uncertainty in mind when interpreting any statistical data such as probabilities.
Know Your Risk Appetite
Risk is aways associated with uncertainty. For example the probability may be reasonably high (say above 70%) that a stock price increases in the next few days. As a result you decide to buy the stock now. However there is still a real chance that the price actually decreases and you lose money. It all depends on price volatility and the amount you invested.
Therefore it is absolutely essential that you know your individual appetite for risk. Are you risk-adverse like us and tend to invest small amounts in a diversified range of securities with less volatility? Or do you embrace risk by investing larger amounts in less securities with more volatility? It all depends on you so it is absolutely imperative that know your particular appetite for risk before you begin.
Our Initial Recommendation
During our initial alpha and beta phases we are introducing both investment strategies and forecast data to the general public. The investment strategies will have been back-tested but not yet live-tested. Therefore we ask that you refrain from using our investment recipes and public data for any trading purposes until our alpha and beta phases end and we have had a chance to conduct live testing.
Why do we emphasize this important point again? Well we want to again emphasize mutual success for us as well as you! As a result please wait until we have had a chance to fully validate our recipes and prove legitimacy over the next few months. We will certainly inform you of any changes to our policy via this blog.
Now we must add the standard legal dislaimer if you ever decide to use our investment strategies and trade with our forecast data. If you use our investment strategies and forecast data we cannot accept responsibility for your results including any success or lack thereof. We hope that you understand that in today's legal climate we must mention this fact.
As always if you have any questions, please feel free to contact us anytime. We will be more than happy to help you or answer any question. In the meantime we look forward to hearing from you and sharing our thoughts.